Friday, 6 June 2014

Weekly Nifty For 9th-13th 2014

                        The markets made a history by not only posting a new high but also closing above the 7550 resistance levels. On the back of positive national & international news the market posted a more than 4.5% gains. Prior in the week the RBI gave a dovish policy outlook along with reduced SLR by 50 bps. This resulted in the interest sensitive stocks to rally to new highs. Later in the week the ECB president indicated chances of further fiscal stimulus. This saw rally across all global markets. On Friday the Indian markets saw huge rally in the Oil and Gas sector. The market managed to finally break free & close above the Election Result Day candle.
                         Nifty opened the week at 7264, made a high of 7592, low of 7239 and closed the week at 7583. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a gain of 354 points.Nifty has formed a big White body Marubuzo on the weekly chart,  completely negating the Bearish Engulfing pattern formed last week. On the daily charts it has formed a big white body candle with a bullish gap. Thus both daily and weekly candlestick analysis suggests bullishness in the near term.
                        Nifty has completed a Bullish Flag pattern on daily as well as weekly charts. Thus as per Flag pattern on daily as well as weekly charts, one can expect a target of 7705-7706 for the Nifty.
For the last three weeks the market has been consolidating inside the Election Day candle (7130-7563), which got taken out on Friday it closed above the higher end of the Trading range. As a result of which Nifty is now headed towards a target of 7890-8008.
                       On Friday, the index once again formed a Bullish Rising Gap between 7497-7484. This gap will not only act as an immediate support but it is also a Measuring Gap. Hence as per Gap theory, the target falls at 7863. If and when the market breaches this gap the market will proceed to test an intermediate bottom at 7360, which is likely to provide strong support. Market has left behind a stronger Bullish Rising Gap between 7067-7020, which will act as stronger support zone. Hence the current uptrend will reverse only if this support zone gets breached.
                       The market has broken the 6 year consolidation in the form of Ascending triangle. The target for which lies at 10480. On the weekly charts Nifty have completed a Bullish Saucer formation and the targets as per that will fall at 8145. The targets are likely to be achieved within a period of next 20 months.
                        Nifty are way above the short term average of 20dma (7285), the medium term average of 50dma (6947) and the long term average of 200dma (6300). Thus the trend in the short term, medium term and the long term timeframe continues to remain bullish.
                        MACD and ROC are positive and continue with their Buy signals. RSI and Stochastic Oscillator continue to remain overbought. OBV and MFI continue with their Buy signal and so do the Directional Indicators and the Bollinger Band. ADX is at a high level of 50 which suggests that the strength of the current uptrend is very high but the trend is now maturing. Hence it is suggested to be cautious as some consolidation in the current uptrend can be expected.
                        Nifty Options data suggest strong Put writing at the strike of 7500 and strong Call writing at the strike of 7800. Thus one can expect a range of the market between Nifty 7500 and 7800.

Stock of the Week:
GMDC
The Stock has formed a Bullish Saucer on the weekly charts as shown above. The stock has a pattern target of 242 for the stop loss of 125. For short tern buy the stock with the stop loss of 149 for the target of 173-184-201.

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