Weekly Nifty For 17th June to 21th June 2013

          This week nifty has been pretty volatile. It opened gap up in line with my expectation but soon faltered to close in red on Monday itself. The first four days it lost around 224 points but recovered on Friday to close with the net loss of 73 points on weekly basis. The 5680 support pushed the prices sharply with nifty gaining around 109 points on Friday. The RBI policy on Monday might also be reason for giving traders cold feet, which lead to a good amount of short covering. RBI governor D. Subbarao will present his last mid quarter review on 17th, so I expect some surprises.

               On the daily charts the nifty gap down 50 points on Thursday and gain gaped up 50 points on Friday. Thus it has formed a bullish Island reversal pattern. A fresh long can be taken with 5730 as stoploss for the upper targets of 5860-5895. Nifty has broken the 5730 level with gap indicating its importance. With today's up move the index has also closed above the 200 dma it broke on tuesday and also taken support of 50WMA. Thus the long term has turned bullish, while short and medium term outlook is negative. The FII have sold 2923.76 Cr. in the cash market and 2281.02Cr. Index futures & 235.44Cr. Stock Futures during this week.

             The IIP data was dismal at 2% but later on it was revised twice to final figure of 2.3%. The erroneous calculation of such important data is diminishing importance of government sources producing these data. The WPI as well as CPI both fell reviving hopes for a possible rate cuts. The Pre-policy RBI statement might through some light at the RBI mind set while going into the policy day. 

          ROC & RSI has given fresh buy signal but still are in negative territory. MACD and OBV  continues in Sell mode. MFI has stopped falling and completely flattened out, indicating no money moving in or out of the system. ADX has been below 20, indicating the loss of uptrend momentum. So, the oscillators are indicating mixed signals.

            As long as markets stay below 5870 levels the up move will be treated as correction. Only a move above the 5890 levels will indicate end of downward correction of the up move from 5477 to 6230. The support for nifty is at 5780-5730-5680 and the resistance is at 5820-5860-5900. 

           The nifty future trades at 2-3 point discount to the spot value. The implied volatility on the Nifty June Options of ATM strike calls were at 14.25 and for puts were at 20.07. India VIX closed at 18.35. PCR for Nifty based on open interest was at 0.9 and PCR for the day based on volumes was at 0.87 for the market. For the June series, highest Open interest build is seen in 5700 Put and 6000 Call. This suggesting the market range to be 5700 and 6000 levels.

UPDATE : 22nd June 2013
All Trades closed. One lot of each script is traded. Profit booked at first target by me. The entry price is spot price around 9.30 am for all trades. 

Script	BUY/SELL	entry	exit	reached	amount
Ambujacem	buy	176.65	180.35	186.95	7400
axisbank	sell	1288	1281	1269.1	1750
bankbaroda	sell	634	605	539.8	14500
bhel	buy	176.75	179	184.25	2250
				TOTAL	25900

Trading Idea for 17th June- 21th June 2013

Script	BUY/SELL	Pattern	cmp	target/s	Stoploss	Column1
Ambujacem	buy	range break	178.05	180.35/182.25/184.85	175
axisbank	sell	200 dma	1298	1281/1261	1311
bankbaroda	sell	weekly h&s break down	634.1	605/575/560	670	closing  basis
bhel	buy	bullish harami	176.15	179/182.55	174.85