Sunday, 4 January 2015

Weekly Nifty for 5th-9th January 2015

    The market has been in a corrective mode for the past two weeks. It has however finished the correction on the downside and is ready to move higher. In the new year the market took out the resistance of 8300 with a gap up on Friday and closed strongly at 8395. This move has clearly silenced critics predicting major downside for the market.

    Nifty opened the week at 8214, made a high of 8410, low of 8214 and closed the week at 8395. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a gain of 195 points. On the daily charts, market has formed a big Opening white body Marubuzo on Friday which has resulted in it giving a bullish breakout. Also the weekly charts have formed a big White body Marubuzo suggesting that the current uptrend is intact. Thus both weekly as well as daily candlestick patterns suggest bullishness to continue.

    As market closed above 8372, it is now headed higher as the Correction is now complete and the prior uptrend has resumed. Thus Nifty is likely to march towards its previous life highs of 8626 respectively. The market has completed a small bullish Cup & Handle pattern when it closed above 8364. As a result of this pattern, the market is likely to be headed towards a target of 8767 in the near term, as long as Nifty stays above 8147.

    RSI crossed the center line on Wednesday and signaled a Buy suggesting bullish momentum. Stochastic Oscillator continues in buy mode as %K @85 continues to remain above %D. MFI @53 too has signaled a fresh buy on Friday which suggests positive money flow. ADX has fallen to 20, which indicates that the uptrend has lost lot of its strength. Direction Indicators have generated a Buy signal as +DI has gone above –DI. Sell signal given in Bollinger Band has been negated on Friday when the Nifty closed above the mean of 20dma. Thus majority of the Oscillators have turned positive and are suggesting bullishness in the near term.

    This week, Nifty managed to conquer the short term average of 20dma (8265) and the medium term average of 50dma (8310), thereby turning the short term as well as the medium term trend up. Also both the indices continue to remain well above the long term average of 200dma (7641). Thus the trend in the short term as well as medium term time frame has turned bullish whereas trend in the long term time frame continues to remain up.

    Option data suggest highest Put Open Interest is at 8000 whereas the highest Call build-up has shifted to the strike of 8600. Thus Option data suggests a trading range with support coming in at 8000 and resistance around 8600. On Friday there was a surge in Open Interest for the 8400 Put which suggests that this level is likely to act as support.

Stock of the Week:
Ultra tech Ltd

The stock has given breakout of falling channel on the weekly charts with good volumes. The pattern target lies at 3067 with the stop loss of 2500. For the short term the stock can be bought with the stop loss of 2675 on closing basis for the target of 2801-2875-2950

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