Monday, 9 September 2013

Weekly Nifty For 10th-13th September 2013

              RBI Governor, Mr Raghram Ranjan announced plans to boost finance sector and support rupee. RBI said that it plans to ease rules for some equity purchases by foreign investors, easy process for banks to open branches and lending to non-state sectors of the economy. It also announced a plan to provide concessional swap for bank’s foreign currency deposits which will increase Central Bank’s foreign currency deposits. The rupee recovered and currently trading at Rs 65.3 a dollar. Market sentiments were upbeat which translated into 650 W-o-W gains in BSE Sensex and 209 points gains in NSE Nifty to close at 19270 and 5680 levels, FIIs were net seller to the tune of Rs 6.5 bn while DIIs were net seller to the meager Rs0.1 bn. Globally, Service industries in the U.S. expanded in August at the fastest pace in almost eight years. China's official purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the non-manufacturing sector dipped slightly to 53.9 in August from July's 54.1.
              Sensex opened the week at 18691, made a high of 19293, low of 18166 and closed the week at 19270. Thus it registered a weekly gain of 651 points. At the same time the Nifty opened the week at 5480, made a high of 5688, low of 5318 and closed the week at 5680. Thus the Nifty closed the week with a gain of 209 points. After forming a big black body candle on Tuesday which almost engulfed previous three days white candles; the last three days of the week saw tremendous recovery by the market and formed three white body candles which completely overcame the bearishness of the big black body candle. On the weekly charts, both Sensex and Nifty have formed a big white body candle which is almost like a Closing White body Marubuzo. Thus both daily as well as weekly charts suggest bullishness to continue in the short term.
             A small Upward Sloping Rising Channel breakout has been witnessed in both the Sensex and Nifty, on line charts. The target as per this comes around Sensex 19664 and Nifty 5787. This week both Sensex and Nifty have managed to close above the short term average of 20dma (Sensex – 18585 and Nifty – 5483). There is a divergence as far as the medium term average of 50dma is concerned as the Sensex has closed well above it (Sensex – 19167), whereas the Nifty is still below it (Nifty – 5705). Also both the indices continue to remain below the long term average of 200dma (Sensex – 19332 and Nifty – 5834). Thus the trend in the short term has turned positive whereas the long term trend is still bearish.
             MACD continues with its Buy signal despite being in the negative territory. ROC has become positive and continues with its Buy signal. RSI has moved above the equilibrium line giving buy was signaled. This indicates bullish momentum in the market. MFI (58) too has signaled a Buy which suggests money flowing into the market. Stochastic Oscillator continues with its Buy signal as %K (81) continues to be above %D. ADX has reduced and is at 20 suggesting the reduction in strength of downtrend. The Directional Indicators continue with its Sell signal but more interestingly -DI and +DI have both converged and are at the same level. OBV has gone above the previous top and signaled a Buy. It continues to make higher top higher bottom formation. The stop loss for the Sell signal in Bollinger band has been triggered, as the indices have closed above the mean of 20dma. Thus majority of the Oscillators are pointing towards more bullishness in the short term.
            The Nifty O.I. PCR has improved and is now at 1.52. For the current month series, highest Open interest build up is at 5300 Put and 5700 Call. This suggests that the market expects a trading range with support at 5300 levels and resistance around 5700 levels. Friday saw high amount of Put writing at 5400 strike which suggests immediate support coming in at around Nifty 5400 levels.

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